About
TheModelSays is a football prediction site that uses a proper statistical model — not opinion, not vibes — to estimate the most likely scoreline in every World Cup 2026 match, and simulate the full tournament thousands of times to produce win probabilities you can actually reason about.
It is a World Cup 2026 companion built for football fans who want to see the numbers behind the tournament. You can enter any two remaining teams, click predict, and get:
Alongside match predictions, the site shows live tournament win probabilities for every remaining team, updated after each matchday. These are generated by simulating the full knockout bracket 20,000 times and counting how often each team lifts the trophy.
Scoreline probabilities for any two remaining teams, powered by the Dixon-Coles model.
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo win probabilities for every team still in the competition.
Projected fantasy points and optimal squad picks for the WC 2026 official fantasy game.
TheModelSays was built by a football fan with a background in data and statistics who wanted a better answer to the question "who is actually going to win this match?" than what the TV pundits were offering.
The model draws on published academic research — specifically the Dixon-Coles (1997) paper on rating football teams using Poisson regression — combined with match-by-match data from the current and past World Cups, weighted appropriately to give more influence to recent results.
Content about the model's predictions, fantasy tips, and match previews is also shared on TikTok and YouTube. The goal is the same on both platforms: show how a statistical model thinks about the game, and make that reasoning accessible to fans who don't have a statistics degree.
You should not trust it blindly — no statistical model is infallible. Football involves injuries, tactics, referee decisions, and pure luck that no model captures perfectly.
What the model does well is remove human bias. It doesn't care which team you support. It doesn't overweight last week's shock result. It weights evidence by source quality and recency, applies a mathematically principled correction for low-scoring football matches (the Dixon-Coles tau), and updates as new results come in.
The methodology page gives a full account of how it works, what data it uses, and where it is known to be imperfect. Read it before making any decisions — fantasy or otherwise — based on the predictions.
No. TheModelSays does not offer odds, accept bets, or promote gambling services. The predictions are provided for entertainment and as a decision-support tool for WC 2026 official fantasy football. They should not be used as the basis for betting.
For questions or feedback about the model or the site, reach out via the TikTok or YouTube channels. Comments and questions are welcome — especially if you think the model is wrong about your team.